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Context The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Synthesis Report for the Sixth Assessment Cycle recently in Interlaken, Switzerland. The report highlights the urgency of drastically reducing the emission of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) and to limit rising global temperatures by 1.5 C from pre-industrial levels, set by the Paris Agreement (2015). It also emphasised the need to adapt to human-caused climate change through “mainstream effective and equitable action” for a “liveable sustainable future for all.”The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) It is the United Nations body established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. The main activity of the IPCC is the preparation of reports assessing the state of knowledge of climate change like assessment reports, special reports and methodology reports. The assessment reports are a key input into the international negotiations to tackle climate change. The IPCC does not itself engage in scientific research. Instead, its reports are based on all the relevant scientific literature related to climate change and draw up logical conclusions.The IPCC Synthesis Report (SYR) It is a compilation of the main findings of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, based on results from three Working Groups (WGs) as follows: WG I evaluated the physical science basis of climate change WG II evaluated the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability WG III evaluated the mitigation The SYR also drew from Special Reports based on Global Warming of 1.5°C (2018), Climate Change and Land (2019), and the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019). The SYR is presented in the wake of major global upheavals brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent global energy crisis.What are the Key Findings of SYR? Excess emissions from human activities have raised global temperature by 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). Human activities have ‘unequivocally’ caused global warming, with global net anthropogenic GHG emissions 54 per cent higher than the level in 1990. Also, contributions have varied by country and income group, with around 35 per cent of the global population living in countries emitting more than 9 tCO2e per capita, while 41 per cent live in countries emitting less than 3 tCO2e. This has led to extreme and/or unpredictable weather events risking human health, fortunes, and ecosystems. It has also made people much more susceptible to food insecurity, water shortages with vulnerable populations disproportionately facing the brunt of climate change. Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and harder to limit below 2°C. There may be some irreversible changes in the climate system when tipping points are reached, such as the loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. At current emissions levels, the remaining carbon budget (about 500 GtCO2) for a 50 per cent likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is likely to be depleted if the annual CO2 emissions between 2020 and 2030 stayed, on average, at the same level as 2019. GHG emissions must be cut by 43 per cent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and CO2 emissions must be cut by 48 per cent. This must be accompanied by reaching global net zero CO2 emissions in the early 2050s. The vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to climate change are being disproportionately affected by climate change. For instance, between 2010 and 2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability. The report categorically states that despite some advancements towards curtailing the GHGs emissions, the adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation. Some of the barriers to adaptation have been limited resources, lack of private sector and citizen engagement, low climate literacy, lack of political commitment and low sense of urgency.What are the Implications of IPCC Synthesis Report for India? With the rise in seawater level, which the IPCC report documented as 7 mm per year between 2006 and 2018, compared to the 1.9 mm per year between 1971 and 2006, India is facing a huge challenge with its long coastline.What are the Recommendations in the SYR? Deep systemic changes across all economic sectors are needed to reduce emissions on a sustained basis. This could be done by shifting to low-carbon economic systems. For instance, widespread electrification, diversifying energy generation towards wind, solar, and small-scale hydropower, battery-powered electric vehicles, and conserving and restoring forests while also reducing tropical deforestation. Political commitment and equity are key to enabling climate resilient development, that could be enabled by technology development, transfer, capacity building and financing to vulnerable nations. It also stressed on the need for financial resolution for a more equitable world. An accelerated financial support for developing countries from developed countries as a critical enabler, with a greater focus needed on public grant-based finance to fight climate change. For example, through central banks, government and financial regulators to scale up climate resilience, and protect low-income and marginalized communities. It also noted that prompt action to achieve Paris Agreement goals would greatly reduce risks to global population and avoid irreversible damage to coral reefs, Arctic ecosystems and forests. It will also reduce the rate of sea level rise, allowing humans and ecosystems to adapt more easily, and avoid the complete melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets that would otherwise occur. The report thus suggested climate resilient development rooted in diverse values, world views, including indigenous knowledge to mitigate the effects of climate change. The report also vitalized that the rise in average global temperature could be gradually reduced again by achieving and sustaining net negative global CO2 emissions.Way Forward for India: With a large vulnerable population, India needs to prioritise grants and policies that focusses on adapting to the effects of climate change. India’s should strive to minimise loss and damage in terms of lives, livelihood and biodiversity, and accelerate equitable action mitigation and adaptation. As a developing country, India can lower its per-capita emissions through furthering energy efficiency policies that are already being implemented. It can also decarbonise the energy sector by using cleaner options like solar and renewable energy.Conclusion According to the Synthesis Report, the scale of the challenge is unprecedented, with the burden falling disproportionately on the developing world such as those in the monsoon regions and elsewhere in the tropics. Hence, the climate-resilient development, which seeks win-win solutions to reduce or avoid GHG emissions at the same time improving quality of life, offers a clear way forward. |
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